MLB Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

The 2007 was a unique season for the Diamondbacks as they won 90 games despite being outscored by their opponents throughout the season. This feat has happened before in the Majors, but is extremely rare.

Many theories abound in the sabermetrics community on how the Diamondbacks were able to succeed despite the run differential. There is no doubt Arizona was a product of good fortune, but the team also bosted one of the league's best bullpens as Jose Valverde converted 47 saves in 07. The bullpen was also boosted by the emergence of Tony Pena in middle relief as he posted an ERA of 3.27 for the D Backs.

The Diamondbacks continued their success in the postseason by dismantling the Cubs in a three game sweep, but ran into a team that couldn't be stopped in the NLCS as the Rockies swept the Dbacks to go to the World Series.

Arizona enters 2008 with on of the best young nucleus's in major league baseball as they boost one of the youngest lineups in the game. Arizona also improved their starting rotation in the off-season by acquiring Dan Haren, who was widely considered to be one of the top pitchers available in the off-season. Arizona gave up a lot of their top prospects to acquire Haren from the A's, but Haren still is only 27 and has many good years left in his right arm.

Now it's time to answer three questions regarding the Diamondbacks in 2008.

(1) Will Brandon Lyon be able to replace Jose Valverde in the closers role?

One of the puzzling moves the Diamondbacks made this year was trading Valverde to Houston for utility man Chris Burke and a pair of middle relievers. Arizona may have traded Valverde at a perfect time as his value will never be higher, but it's tought to see how Burke and two non-descript middle relievers will help Arizona in the near term.

The club is expected to enter the season with Brandon Lyon as it's closer, and that has not been a fruitful proposition for teams in the past. Lyon has been a closer before with Boston, and actually closed 14 games for Arizona in 2005, but posted an ERA that was over 6.

Lyon doesn't have overpowering stuff, which is a very valuable asset for closers as they are able to utilize strikeouts which have the effect of keeping baserunners stationary. Lyon is coming off a spectacular 07 season and was one of the best set up men in the game, however if previous history is an indicator I don't think Lyon will be able to handle the closer role for the duration of the 08 season.

Don't be surprised if Tony Pena is a closer at some point in the season as he has tremendous movement on his off-speed pitches. Pena also throws in the low to mid 90's, which gives him the ability to strikeout hitters and thus end a lot of rallies.

(2) Will the Diamondbacks young stars make the next step this year?

The odd thing about the 07 season for the Diamondbacks is that they were able to win the division despite getting subpar seasons from the young players they were counting to contribute heavily for them. It's becoming clear that the scouts may have missed on Stephen Drew. It's not to say that Drew is not a Major League caliber player, but he will unlikely be destined for the super star status that was given to him after being drafted by Arizona.

Drew batted only .238 last season, and barely posted an OBP of .300, that needs to improve if Drew is going to remain in the lineup for the Dbacks. Chris Young posted one of the more unusual season in MLB history for a leadoff hitter. Young posted a sub 300 OBP, but was also able to blast 32 home runs and drove in nearly 100 runs. Young is not suited for the leadoff spot, but nontheless will need to learn patience at the plate if he expects to continue his development.

The Dbacks best prospect, and maybe the games best prospect Justin Upton struggled during his brief stint in the Majors last Summer. Arizona is not expecting this to happen in 08 as Upton was just getting his feet wet last year. Upton isn't even old enough to drink, so it's scary to think what kind of damage he will do to MLB pitchers during the next decade.

Arizona should be able to count on improvement from some if not all of these youngsters and if that happens this team may be able to improve on that 90 win performance last season.

(3) Will Arizona need Randy Johnson to produce for them this year?

At first glance the obvious answer to this question would seem to be yes, but if you look to last year the team won 90 games with very little contributions coming from Johnson. On top of that they acquired one of the best pitchers in the game Dan Haren to add to their rotation. Any contribution they get from Johnson needs to be considered as icing on the cake, as Johnson is 44 years old and has become damaged goods over the past two seasons.

The Dbacks should boast one of the Majors best rotations this season as they will have former Cy Young award winner Brandon Webb anchoring the rotation. Haren will take the 2nd spot in the rotation, and provided Johnson can stay healthy he will take the third spot. The Dbacks forgotten man is Doug Davis, who until last year was a model of consistency for the Brewers during their lean years. Micah Owings will more than likely take the fifth spot in the rotation, and given his hitting prowess may give the Dbacks some added thunder in their lineup.

It's hard to imagine the Dbacks winning less games then they did last year, but when you take into account that they were extremely fortunate to win 90 games it is not inconceivable. The Dbacks still should be considered the favorite in the NL West as their rotation may be the best in the Majors, and their young players should only get better in 2008.