Friday, March 28, 2008

MLB Preview: Cincinnatti Reds

The 2007 season wasn't much different from the previous seven seasons for the Reds, as they hit their share of home runs, but also gave up more than their share of home runs.

Since signing Ken Griffey Jr before the 2000 season the Reds have featured one of the games more exciting offenses, but haven't been able to find quality pitching to support that offense. Sluggers like Adam Dunn and Brandon Phillips have given their offense plenty of excitement, even as Griffey has been hurt during the majority of his stint with the Reds.

The Reds do have some consistency at the top of their rotation as Aaron Harrang is quietly becoming one of the more effective pitchers in the NL. Bronson Arroyo also gives the Reds reason for optimism this season.

Now it's time to answer three questions regarding the 2008 Cincinnatti Reds.

(1) Will Dusty Baker provide the same magic for the Reds as he did for the Giants and the Cubs?

Dusty Baker is one of the more controversial managers in the game of baseball, as many of the statheads in the game criticize him for being averse to playing young players. While GM's around the league, and columnists covering the game can't get enough of him as he won 3 Manager Of The Year awards during his time with the Giants and the Cubs.

Baker is definitely media friendly, which is becoming an increasing responsibility for major league managers during this information age. Baker turned around the Giants franchise in the 90's, but his success coincided with the Giants acquiring Barry Bonds. Many Baker critics will also point out that the Cubs rise and fall was attributed to Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, not to Dusty Baker.

Say what you will about Baker, but he can't be any worse than the managers the club has had previously. Baker also seems to create a loose clubhouse, which is hard to measure but it can't be a bad thing.

Baker definitely will have to show the necessary patience to play young players with the Reds, as the team has a lot of them, and a lot of good ones at that. The Reds may not be the best fit for Baker as he does like to go with a veteran lineup, and is not good at juggling lineups around. If Baker decides to go with the more talented youngsters this season, then he may just find himself the recipient of his fourth manager of the year award.

(2) Will the Reds finally have enough pitching to be relevant this year?

This is the question that Reds fans have been asking since 2000, and this year they may finally like the answer. The Reds have a strong top two in Harrang and Arroyo, but thanks to some prized young arms the team could have an above average major league rotation.

Johnny Cueto has been the talk of Spring Training as he has quickly progressed through the Reds minor league system. Cueto has already earned himself a rotation spot on the Reds roster to start the 2008 season which is impressive considering Baker's track record.

Cueto has a fastball that is clocked in the mid 90's, and throws a slider that will have plenty of hitters swinging at pitches in the dirt. Cueto is still only 22 years old, so it remains to be seen if he has the maturity to handle the big adjustment he will face in the majors. It's a great sign to see the Reds give him a chance as he can't be any worse than the Matt Belisle's of the world.

The Reds also announced that Edison Volquez, whom they acquired from the Texas Rangers will be given a slot in the club's rotation to star the season. Volquez started six games for the Rangers last season, and posted two wins during that time period. Volquez was acquired in exchange for Josh Hamilton as the Reds felt they had enough outfielders in their system to make the move.

Volquez also hits the mid 90's and combines that with some devastating off-speed pitches as well. The Reds also signed Francisco Cordero to shore up their bullpen, which was amongst the majors worst last season. Cordero was inconsistent for Milwaukee last season, but has the stuff to be a dominant closer this season.

(3) Will Dusty Baker go with the more talented youngsters at some point this season?

The Reds chances of success this season ultimately hinge on this answer, and at this points it doesn't appear to be a good answer for Reds fans. Baker has already sent down Jay Bruce, who is the top prospect in the game according to Baseball Prospectus. Bruce displayed his skills in Spring Training, and has every right to be the Center Fielder over Cory Patterson. It remains to be seen how long he will be in the minors, but the Reds will need him up before June if they have any chance at contending this season.

The team also has one of the top first base prospects in the game as Joey Votto displayed his skills during a brief stint last season. Votto has had a disappointing Spring thus far, and all signs point towards Scott Hatteberg winning the job on opening day. Dusty Baker may not have a choice at shortstop as Alex Gonzalez will miss an indeterminate amount of time due to an injury so Jeff Keppinger should start the season as the shortstop.

The team has talent at almost every position, so the lineup stands to improve if they go forward with their youth movement, but if Dusty Baker sticks to form, the consequences to the Reds could be devastating.

The Reds still should show an improvement over last year as their rotation looks to be in as good of shape as it has in many years. The team also has Adam Dunn and Phillips returning again to produce some power in the lineup. This team may not be as good as the Cubs and Brewers, but then again it's hard to know just how good some of these young players are until they are given a chance.

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