Wednesday, March 19, 2008

MLB Preview: Baltimore Orioles

The 2007 season was another disappointing season for the Baltimore Orioles as they once again found life in the AL East to be extremely challenging. The one silver lining that Orioles fans can take from the season is that the front office finally realized that the team could not win with it's current crop of players and decided it's finally time to rebuild.

The Orioles will have quite possibly the worst record in the majors this year, but the team is at least giving up on the notion that they could contend with veteran players that are on the downside of their careers.

Now it's time to answer three questions about the 2008 Baltimore Orioles

(1) Did the team receive enough value for Miguel Tejada?

It's one thing to trade away overpaid veterans, it's another to get players in return who will push forward the rebuilding process. The Orioles traded Miguel Tejada two seasons to late, as the team was offered substantially better offers for him during the trading deadline of 2006.

The Orioles front office thought the team was closer to contending then they really were, and perhaps bought into the clubs fast start in 2005 as they were the surprise team in baseball during the first half, and shot out of the gate and opened a substantial lead in the AL playoff race. That team came back down to earth in the 2nd half and was an afterthought by the time that September came around.

It's not to say the package they received from Houston is devoid of MLB calibar players, because these are players that will find roles on the Orioles, and many of them will be asked to contribute as soon as 2008. The problem is that none of them have a high upside and will probably never be All Stars. OF Luke Scott will be a useful player for the Orioles this season, but he's better suited to be a fourth outfielder, Scott doesn't have the power to be considered anything more than a utility corner outfielder.

The other prize of the deal is pitcher Matt Albers, who jumped from AA to the Majors last year with Houston. Albers didn't have much success with Houston however, as he posted an ERA that was close to 6. Albers is a sinker ball pitcher who has trouble with his command, which equals a lot of mistakes, and in Camden yards that means a lot of home runs.

Albers will likely join the starting rotation for the Orioles this season, but shouldn't be much more than a fourth starter at best. The key for the Orioles will be whether Albers is in the rotation in 09, or 2010 when the team is back on the path towards contention.

(2) Did the Orioles fare any better in the Erik Bedard trade?

Erik Bedard was well on his way to being in consideration for the Cy Young award last season, before an injury in August put him on the shelf for the rest of the season. Bedard lead the league in strikeouts before the injury and still posted 13 wins despite missing all of that time.

The Orioles decided to trade Bedard this off-season because they didn't see themselves anywhere near contention, and had to add some talent to a stale minor league system. The Orioles succeeded in doing that, as they acquired two of the better prospects in baseball from the Mariners.

Outfielder Adam Jones is a five tool talent player, and should be roaming the OF in Camden Yards for years to come. Jones is one of the favorites for the rookie of the year award this season, and should give Orioles fans something to be excited for in the future.

The Orioles also received one of the Mariners best pitching prospects in Chris Tillman who was highly thought of coming out of High School and should move up to AA ball this year. Tillman throws mid 90's heat and just needs to work on his control before he is ready to help the Orioles in the big leagues.

The Orioles received three additional players from the Mariners, including George Sherrill who is expected to be named the club's closer while Chris Ray recovers from Tommy John surgery.

(3) Who can the Orioles build around now that they have traded away two of their best players?

The Orioles don't have many recognizable faces to the average fan across the country, and the name that fans may recognize, Brian Roberts is involved in trade rumors to the Cubs on a daily basis. The Orioles are doing the right thing for their ball club in the long term, but trading away star players is always difficult for paying customers to understand.

It's important for the Orioles to go forward with this process, as attendance at Camden Yards was dwindling even before they traded away these stars. The Orioles only chance at competing with the Yankees and Red Sox is to establish a solid pipeline between their farm system and the big club. This is what the Rays are in the process of doing, and they should see some results this season. It's impossible to outspend the Yankees as the Orioles have learned, and the Blue Jays soon will learn.

The team does still have some building blocks, as Nick Markakis became one of the team's lone bright spots last season as he hit 23 homers, and drove in over 100 runs in his first full season in the big leagues. Adam Jones has face of the franchise like potential as he has been compared to a cross between Torii Hunter and Mike Cameron.

If the pitching coaches are ever able to get Daniel Cabrera to find the strike zone the team has a 20 win ace on their hands. Cabrera has just filthy stuff, and has been amongst the leaders in strikeouts during the previous two seasons. The problem for Cabrera has been harnessing his stuff, and finding the strike zone. The Orioles really don't have many other pitching prospects other then Tillman, so they will need to acquire a solid pitching prospect in return for Roberts if they go forward with plans to trade him.

The 2008 Baltimore Orioles will be lucky to win 65 games this season, as their pitching rotation is complete disarray right now, as many of the spots are up for grabs in Spring Training. If the front office can be patient with some of the young players, and avoid the trap of overpaying for veterans in the Free Agent market, the Orioles will be able to see light at the end of the tunnel.

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